twitter-hp-research-popularityDo you know that it is possible to predict the ebb and flow of Twitter “trending topics” by generalizing from early observations; this is what HP Labs did in their latest research.

HP Lab team takes this predictive capability one step further by inventing a technique which can forecast the popularity of a news article on Twitter before it is published – with up to 84% accuracy, which is quite awesome.

The analysis report which is known as “The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity,” by Sitaram Asur, Roja Bandari, and Bernardo Huberman, draws on data from over 40,000 news articles published over nine days in August 2011.

According to the HP Lab’s study which reinforces the intuition that the source of news matters most in determining how many tweets will link to a given article. But as social media continues in order to increase the importance, key questions which are about how users are influenced to act beyond clicking the “Retweet” button and most importantly the nature of journalism in 140 characters.

HP Labs describes the working of this system based on four important factors which would determine an article’s popularity, which are following:

- The news source that creates and publishes the article

- The category of news the article belongs to (e.g. business, health, or sports)

- Whether the language in the article was emotional or objective

- Whether celebrities, famous brands, or other notable institutions are mentioned

It’s a very proud moment for brilliant minds behind HP Labs who has shown that even on Twitter, influence and popularity is not the same thing.

[Via HP Blog]